Time value of lives (edited) (temp)

In economics, a key insight stems from the realization that a dollar’s value decreases over time. This is due to the potential interest accrued from a dollar and therefore a dollar today is “worth” more than a dollar tomorrow, next-week, and any time after. In philosophy, many frameworks emphasize longtermist ideas. Since future populations are likely to be greater than current populations, it follows that our decision making in the present should heavily weigh toward the best expected outcome for these future individuals. The future is uncertain. Human societies, our climate, and technology are all complex systems wherein small changes can produce large “butterfly-effects”. Moreover, complex systems are sensitive to initial conditions which implies that any suitable long-term predictions would require a boggling amount of data at great precision. In specific short term cases, we can make reasonably accurate predictions such as raising interest rates to combat inflation. However, the indirect consequences of such policies are difficult to predict due to the sheer number of confounding variables. For example, Economist Roge Karma, staff writer at the Atlantic describes how “When the Fed raises rates, it’s trying to slow inflation without triggering a recession. But economists can’t always predict exactly how markets, businesses, and consumers will respond.”(https://www.texasstandard.org/stories/raising-interest-rates-inflation-theory-volcker-federal-reserve/). This aligns with the observation that economic policy is always in dispute.

The Green revolution “was a period during which technology transfer initiatives resulted in a significant increase in crop yields” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution). However, in states such as Punjab these leaps were accompanied by groundwater depletion, soil nutrient imbalance, and narrowing crop diversity(https://www.geojournal.net/uploads/archives/7-9-4-879.pdf). On Punjab Farmer Jasnail Singh Lamente"'The green revolution has brought us only downfall,' 'It ruined our soil, our environment, our water table. Used to be we had fairs in villages where people would come together and have fun. Now we gather in medical centers.” (Bourne 17. Bourne, pp. 46-47.).

This is not to say we cannot make any predictions. Weather systems, for example, are complex but still partially predictable in the short term. However, forecast accuracy drops significantly beyond roughly ten days.[^5]Meteorological forecasting limits (accuracy drop beyond ~10 days) https://climatecosmos.com/climate-science/meteorologists-debate-the-reliability-of-long-term-forecasts-yzj6t-2/

Since we cannot make any reliable long term predictions we should be cautious about utilizing predictions of expected future value to make decisions especially when well intentioned interventions may produce harmful effects. Under deep uncertainty, we cannot assign reliable probabilities or even identify all relevant outcomes, which makes expected value calculations fragile or misleading. Therefore the short term should be the main focus of moral decision making.

Even existential risks should not be prioritized for the same reason.However, the problem of deep uncertainty applies here as well. Estimates of existential risk depend on highly speculative models of complex systems, and interventions aimed at reducing such risks may themselves produce unintended consequences. For example, antiobitics created to adress infant mortality created resistance in populations and led to superbugs with the IMCRA (International medical Crisis response alliance) describing antimicrobial resistance as one of the top global health threats. Because we cannot reliably predict even the direction of these effects, attempts to optimize for far-future outcomes risk being misguided. Under these conditions, it is more reasonable to prioritize actions that are robustly beneficial in the short to medium term and that improve our ability to respond to unforeseen challenges.