Time value of lives

In economics, a fundamental realization came from the idea that future money is worth less than money today.[^1] This is due to the fact that money today has more opportunity — e.g. it could grow due to interest — so a dollar today is "worth" more than a dollar in twenty years.

In philosophy, many frameworks such as effective altruism emphasize long-term thinking, including future lives in calculations of value.[^2] Given this assumption, and given that there are likely to be more people in the future, it seems to follow that future individuals should be heavily prioritized.

This view I dispute for several reasons.

It is obvious that future events are less certain than present ones. In specific cases we can make short-term predictions, such as raising interest rates to control inflation.[^3]

However, indirect consequences are extremely difficult to predict due to the sheer number of interacting variables. This aligns with the observation that economic policy is almost always contested.

For example, the so-called “Green Revolution,” which aimed to increase global food production and eliminate hunger, had mixed outcomes and in some regions (e.g. Punjab) contributed to ecological damage.[^4]

This makes sense: successful long-term prediction requires an enormous amount of data and modeling, which is beyond current capability. Human societies are also highly sensitive to initial conditions, meaning small errors can cascade into large unintended outcomes.

This is not to say we cannot make any predictions. Weather systems, for example, are complex but still partially predictable in the short term. However, forecast accuracy drops significantly beyond roughly ten days.[^5]

Since we cannot make reliable long-term predictions, we should be cautious about basing moral decisions on far-future outcomes, especially when well-intentioned interventions may produce harmful effects. The short term should therefore carry greater weight in moral reasoning. [^1]: Investopedia — Interest rates and inflation relationship
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/12/inflation-interest-rate-relationship.asp

[^2]: Our World in Data — Population growth
https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth

[^3]: Example of short-term macroeconomic prediction via monetary policy (interest rates & inflation dynamics)
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/12/inflation-interest-rate-relationship.asp

[^4]: Green Revolution overview and regional impacts (Punjab case discussion widely documented in agricultural history literature)

[^5]: Meteorological forecasting limits (accuracy drop beyond ~10 days)
https://climatecosmos.com/climate-science/meteorologists-debate-the-reliability-of-long-term-forecasts-yzj6t-2/